March Madness Projections Before Conference Championship Weekend

For all intents and purposes, March Madness is underway. The conference tournaments tipped off this week and 31 teams will claim automatic qualifier bids, bumping bubble teams off ahead of Selection Sunday on March 13.

That afternoon a March Madness bracket will be revealed and teams will know if their season is continuing with a national championship within reach. Many office pools, schools, and kids’ fundraisers will commence as brackets are filled out and trashed soon after the first weekend.

Living on the bubble this time of year creates spooky season as if it were Halloween Midnight Madness to begin the season. Teams are sweating out if they’ll have a good enough resume as small-school teams look to steal bids.

On the Bubble

Here’s a look at some of the teams on the bubble.

Indiana (18-10): A win over rival Purdue to sweep them would go a long way in helping Indiana’s bid-stealing chances. The Hoosiers have work to do entering the Big Ten tournament if they can’t pull off the season sweep.

Loyola-Chicago (22-7): The Ramblers were a Sweet Sixteen team a year ago but are walking a thin line. They probably have to reach the Missouri Valley Conference championship game to ensure a bid, but even then they may have to be the automatic qualifier.

Memphis (17-9): The Tigers have won eight of their last nine but still have work to do in the American Athletic Conference tournament.

North Carolina (22-8): While the record is nice, the Tar Heels best nonconference win is against Michigan. Most of their work has been done inside conference play. They could end the Coach K retirement tour with a win at Cameron Indoor and help their chances immensely.

VCU (21-7): The Rams beat Syracuse and Vanderbilt and had respectable showings against Baylor and UConn, reason enough to be on the bubble. But VCU will have work to do in the American Athletic Conference to either steal a bid or ensure theirs isn’t stolen.

Xavier (17-11): The Musketeers had the foundation of a strong resume, beating Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State and Cincinnati. But they’ve nearly squandered it by losing six of their last seven down the stretch.

Bid Thieves

Here are a few teams who could steal a bid and make the tournament:

Belmont (25-6): The first tournament bid will go to the Ohio Valley Conference winner, and the Bruins could make it a two-bid league if they win it. But that’s likely the only way they enter the tournament. They may need someone to upset Murray State, which beat Belmont by 22 and 33 this year.

MVC: Loyola-Chicago could have its own bid stolen by someone in its conference. Northern Iowa edged the Ramblers in the season finale to win the regular-season title. The Panthers (18-10), Missouri State (22-9), Bradley (17-13) and Drake (22-9) could all seemingly win it.

Michigan (16-12): Evidently splitting with Michigan State, Purdue and Rutgers is enough to become a bubble team. With a strong Big Ten tournament showing, the Wolverines could find themselves in.

Oregon (18-11): It’s been a wild year for the Ducks, who are fourth in the Pac-12 and swept UCLA, a Final Four team a year ago. Oregon has a nonconference win over SMU and split with USC, and with a Pac-12 tournament run could find itself stealing a bid.

Virginia Tech (19-11): The Hokies are charging, having won nine of their last 10 to find themselves on the bubble. They have a nonconference win over Maryland and close losses to Xavier, Memphis and Dayton, which maybe hurts their chances. But the metrics like the Hokies and a strong ACC tournament could get them in.

Upset Alert

Here are two high-seeded teams which could lose early in the tournament.

Purdue (24-6): The Boilermakers project as a two or three seed, though could get back on the one line by winning the Big Ten tournament. Purdue, however, has back-to-back last-second losses at Michigan State and Wisconsin. The real concern is not their sixth-ranked offense but their average, 178th-ranked defense that allows teams to shoot a decent clip.

Providence (24-4): The Friars have played more close games than anyone and lead KenPom’s luck metrics. There is something to be said for winning but Providence doesn’t rank highly anywhere except the polls.